Tuesday’s NBA action is highlighted by Jimmy Butler’s return to Miami in the Golden State Warriors-Miami Heat matchup.
There is a lot to watch for in that game, as Steph Curry (pelvic contusion) is listed as questionable for Golden State as it aims to hold on to the No. 6 seed in the West.
Elsewhere in the Association, the two No. 1 seeds – Oklahoma City and Cleveland – are both in action on Tuesday as well. I’m backing the Thunder on the road in one of my four NBA Best Bets.
Plus, there are a few player props that I’m considering, including one that could be a steal if Curry ends up sitting.
Here’s a complete breakdown of all of the plays for the games on March 25.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 190-182-4 (-0.66 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1200-1127-26 (+37.44 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Brandin Podziemski OVER 11.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unitMikal Bridges OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unitMiami Heat Team Total UNDER 106.5 (-110) – 0.5 unitOklahoma City Thunder -10 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings – 0.5 unitBrandin Podziemski OVER 11.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
Curry has missed two of the last three games for Golden State, and Brandin Podziemski has taken on a bigger role in those matchups, scoring 17, 15 and 19 points while playing over 29 minutes in every game.
Podziemski has scored 15 or more points in each of his last five games that he’s completed (he scored 0 in a game in which he was injured in the opening minute), and he’s averaging 14.0 points per game in 12 games since re-entering the starting lineup on Feb. 13.
Podz is a steal at this number if Steph sits, and even if the Warriors superstar plays, I like the usage that Podziemski has received as of late, taking 12.3 shots and 5.8 3-point attempts per night over his last 12 games.
Mikal Bridges OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
New York Knicks wing Mikal Bridges has played better with Jalen Brunson out of the lineup due to an ankle injury, and I’m buying him in the prop market against the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday.
Dallas is 27th in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games, and Bridges has 26 or more points, rebounds and assists in all eight games since Brunson went down. During that stretch, Bridges is averaging 21.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.
He should have a lead role in the offense – especially with Miles McBride also out – on Tuesday night.
Miami Heat Team Total UNDER 106.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit
Sticking with the Warriors-Heat matchup, I’m fading Miami in this game, but maybe not in the way you’d expect.
Since Curry’s status is up in the air, I’m taking the team total under for the Heat rather than baking the Warriors to cover.
Golden State is sixth in defensive rating over its last 10 games, and it should slow down a Miami team that is 29th in offensive rating over its last 10. On top of that, the Heat have scored 106 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games.
During that stretch, Miami has failed to crack 100 points a whopping four times. This offense doesn’t have a high ceiling, and Golden State will likely aim to play a defensive-minded game if Curry does sit.
Either way, Golden State is eighth in the NBA in scoring defense this season and fourth over its last 15 games, allowing just over 108 points per game during that stretch.
Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings – 0.5 unit
The Sacramento Kings have a brutal back-to-back on Tuesday after they lost to the Boston Celtics on Monday night.
Even though Domantas Sabonis returned to the lineup, Malik Monk was out on Monday, and the Kings are 10-point dogs at home.
There’s a few concerns here if you’re Sacramento. First off, Jalen Williams has been upgraded to questionable for the Thunder, who are 19-11-2 against the spread as road favorites and currently on a six-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Kings are just 1-6 against the spread as home underdogs. Plus, the Kings have struggled mightily over their last 10 games, ranking 24th in the NBA in net rating. OKC has won nine games over this 10-game stretch while posting an NBA-best +14.1 net rating.
I’ll gladly lay the points with the Thunder – especially if Holmgren and Williams suit up tonight.